POLICY AND ECONOMIC OIL & GAS MARKET growth path despite recent geopolitical disruptions. Emerging market economies generally outperformed advanced economies, with India recording the strongest expansion among all economies covered by the survey, followed by Ireland, China and Japan, reflecting the continued resilience of domestic demand in several Asian economies.
Figure 6: J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI Output Index Index, sa, >50 = growth m/m. Dots long-run average since 1998. 60
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Source: J.P. Morgan; S&P Global PMI
% qr/qr, annualised
The latest S&P Global Flash PMI surveys indicate that business activity across the four largest advanced economies-the United States, Eurozone, Japan and the United Kingdom (G4)-accelerated for the second consecutive month during July, reaching its fastest pace since November 2025. Growth recovered from the slowdown experienced during March-June following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, supported by resilient domestic demand and improving services activity. Although manufacturing continued to outperform services for the seventh consecutive month, the gap narrowed as services activity strengthened, suggesting a gradual rebalancing of global business activity after manufacturing had led the recovery during the initial stages of the Middle East conflict.
Among the advanced economies, the United States remained the strongest performer, recording the fastest expansion in business activity since November 2025. Japan followed closely, registering its strongest manufacturing production growth since 2014. The Eurozone and the United Kingdom also returned to expansion after weak or stagnant conditions in June, reflecting improving domestic demand and business confidence. At the global level, however, the survey also showed that international trade remained subdued despite stronger domestic demand, indicating that the recovery continued to be driven primarily by local market conditions rather than external demand. New business increased at the fastest pace in four months, with investment goods producers recording the strongest expansion among the sectors covered by the survey.
July 2026