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ECONOMY
CARIBBEAN AMERICAN HERITAGE MONTH
Jamaican economy contracted during the first quarter of 2026
KINGSTON, Jamaica - The Ja- maican economy contracted by an estimated 5.9 per cent during the January to March 2026 quarter, compared with the corresponding quarter of 2025, the director general of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIO) Dr Wayne Henry said recently.
He told reporters that the perfor- mance for the review quarter large- ly reflected the lingering impact of Hurricane Melissa that hit the island in October last year on productive activities. He said that the impact of the hurricane led to an estimated contraction in all industries with the exception of financial & insurance activities and public administration & defense; as well as a reduction in the employed labour force and lower levels of business and consumer con- fidence, which constrained domestic demand.
"The hurricane's impact was com- pounded by weakened external de- mand, largely reflecting the intensifi- cation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The resulting disruptions to supply chains and surging energy prices curtailed trade flows and dampened external demand," he added. The mining sector suffered the largest impact, contracting by 26.6 per cent, followed by agriculture at 20.3 per cent, manufacturing at 7.7 per cent and construction, which fell by 1.3 per cent.
The usually dominant accommo- dations and food services or tour- ism sector also experienced a sharp downturn of 20.4 per cent, negatively impacted by a 17 per cent fall in visi- tor arrivals and a 27.5 per cent reduc- tion in total stopover arrivals. Total visitor expenditure for the period declined by 21.3 per cent, amounting to US$976.4 million.
Henry said that for the fiscal year 2025-26, real value added is estimat- ed to have declined by 1.7 per cent and that the out-turn for the fiscal year reflected a contraction in all in- dustries, and that the downturn for the fiscal year largely stemmed from the negative impact of Hurricane
Regarding the employment out- turn, the Statistical Institute of Ja- maica (STATIN) reporting on the Labor Force Survey for January 2026, showed that the unemployment rate was 3.6 per cent, down 0.1 percent- age point relative to January 2025. The number of persons employed decreased by 30 100 persons to 1 389 400 relative to January 2025. Henry said that for the period April-June 2026, prospects for the economy are generally negative. "This is based on the expectation for lower output as industries continue to recover from the adverse effects of the hurricane. It is projected that the will economy contract within the range of three to four per cent relative to April-June
Henry said that it is anticipated that GDP performance will be in- fluenced by continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East which have resulted in higher energy and fertilizer prices. "In addition to pric- es, the conflict has adversely affected investor and consumer sentiments
Melissa.
ITUT that may impact overall demand for goods and services in the short term. Lower production, as industries are still within the recovery process, which may take up to three years."
He said for agriculture, while cer- tain short-term crops have already rebounded, the overall recovery of the industry will not be fully realized in the short term, given the extended period required for other crop vari- eties to reach maturity Henry said that preliminary data for the quarter indicate that airport arrivals for April 2026 declined by 22.5 per cent rela- tive to April 2025, adding this out- turn was in part due to the lingering effect of Hurricane Melissa.
For the mining & quarrying in- dustry, data for April indicate that the heavier weighted alumina pro- duction, contracted by 27.3 per cent, while crude bauxite production in- creased by 0.6 per cent. The PIOJ director general said that the pro- jection for fiscal year 2026/27 is for growth within the range of one to three per cent and that most induscaribbeantimes.com tries are forecast to record growth, as the recovery from the weather-relat- ed shock in 2025 will become more pronounced in the latter half of the fiscal year October 2026-March 2027.
But he acknowledged that there are "upside potential and downside risks to this forecast". He said the up- side potential to growth include ear- ly resolution to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East; and favorable weather conditions, supporting the continued strengthening in agricul- tural output and water production. The downside risks include un- planned factory downtime associat- ed with aged production plants, par- ticularly in the mining & quarrying and manufacturing industries.
Mottley urges producers to help drive Barbados' re-industrialization
BRIDGETOWN, Barbados Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley is urging producers and industry stakeholders to work with her administration in a re- newed national effort to rebuild production, expand exports and strengthen Barbados' economic resilience. "Barbadians have been satisfied to be consumers and not producers. That is not going to get us anywhere," she said in an address that focused on re-in- dustrialization, export strategy, standards, financing and energy resilience.
Mottley said that Barbados could no longer be satisfied with being primarily a nation of con- sumers and that the country's next phase of development must be built on a clearer commitment to producing more, exporting more and creating higher-value goods and services for regional and international markets. She said the challenge was especially urgent in Barbados' 60th year of Independence and fifth year as a Republic, noting that re-industri- alization would only be achieved if producers, policymakers and supporting institutions worked together in common purpose.
Mottley said that in 1960, Bar- bados exported approximately US$24 million in merchandise and imported US$49 million in PRIME MINISTER'S OFFICE
United Natio Climate Chan
Prime Minister Mia Mottley address- ing Barbadian producers and indus- try stakeholders.
goods. By 2024, however, exports stood at approximately US$461 million, while imports had risen to US$2.2 billion, noting that im- ports were now almost five times the level of exports.
Prime Minister Mottley iden- tified six key areas that she said must guide the country's indus- trial and productive agenda: de- veloping an export mentality; using standards and regulation as a competitive advantage; chang- ing the approach to financing and ownership; building energy resil- ience; committing to continuous retraining; and greening and digi- talizing industrial processes.
On the export agenda, she explained that Barbados' small population could not provide the scale required for producers to grow sufficiently. Producers, therefore, had to see the Carib- bean Community (CARICOM) Single Market and Economy (CSME), wider trade agreements, and international niche markets as part of the space in which Bar- badian goods and services must compete. She said small size could either become a limitation or an advantage. In her view, Barbados had to choose agility, nimbleness and higher value, rather than al- lowing small size to become what she described as a "mental noose".
Prime Minister Mottley said standards were essential for mar- Continued on page 29